News Analysis for the Investor on October 5, 2012

Manufacturers are hiring but job growth is slowing

USA Today is reporting that manufacturing accounted for 16 percent of new US jobs in the first seven months of this year, exceeding the industry’s 9 percent share of overall employment.  Now employers are growing cautious due to the slowing economies in Europe and China.  Moody’s forecasts that US manufacturing will be flat for the next twelve months.  In recent years, much of the manufacturing activity has been in durable goods such as automobiles, aircraft, machinery and fabricated materials.  Demand for those items is expected to go down.  The average union US manufacturing worker made $77,186 average pay in 2010 compared to the average US wage of $56,436.

Average investors leave the stock market

Despite the fact that the stock market is reaching toward a new high on the fourth anniversary of the financial crisis, many investors refuse to re-invest, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.  The Investment Company Institute indicates that since March of 2009, investors have yanked a net $138 billion from mutual funds and exchange traded funds that invest in US stocks.  At the same time, they have put $1 trillion into bond funds, a safer but lower yielding investment.  It is the first time since 1981 that investors have pulled money from the US stock funds for more than a year at a time.  Crumbling confidence that an average person can make money in the market is the primary reason.  The Dow was up 80 points on Thursday. Both Asian and European markets are positive on Friday.

Greece runs out of money in November

The Greek Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras, told a German paper today that his country could not manage beyond November without the next tranche of international aid, according to Reuters.  He emphasized that Greece needed liquidity and hinted that the European Central Bank may be considering easing the terms of its Greek debt holdings.

Morgan Stanley warns of layoffs and paycuts

James Gorman, chief executive of Morgan Stanley, said that staff and salaries would need to be sacrificed as banks cope with lower profits, according to the Financial Times.  Morgan Stanley is axing 4,000 jobs or 7 percent of its workforce by the end of this year. Another round of cost cutting is anticipated in 2013.  The goal is to return to 10 percent return on equity.  Prior to the economic crisis, ROE was 23 percent.

DOJ and New York Attorney General Probe Credit Suisse

The Department of Justice and the New York Attorney General are now investigating Credit Suisse regarding mortgage backed securities packaged and sold by the bank, according to CNBC. A civil fraud case was filed on Monday against JP Morgan Chase for how it bundled mortgage loans into securities during the US housing boom.  The lawsuit claims Bear Stearns, which was purchased by JP Morgan Chase," systemically abandoned underwriting guidelines”.  The details of the complaints against Credit Suisse are not yet known, however, the complaint is said to be coming out of a working group created by Obama earlier this year to go after wrongdoing that led to the 2008 financial crisis.

Facebook Tops One Billion Users

The New York Times reports that Facebook said that as of Thursday it had one billion users worldwide who logged onto Facebook at least once a month.  Facebook was created only seven years ago and has doubled its user base in the last two years alone.  It took McDonald’s 40 years to attract a billion customers.  At McDonald’s, however, users bought a hamburger.  Facebook does not make money from its billion users. Today, Facebook makes money on ads based on the data shared by the users and is facing intense pressure to determine how to make more money.  Facebook has lost nearly half of its value since going public in May at $38 per share.  On Thursday, the stock closed at $21.95.  Third quarter earnings will be released October 23^rd.